At its peak, the CPI increase in April may be lowe

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Whether the CPI increase in April is lower than expected or whether to raise interest rates is still inconclusive

inflation expectations may continue to strengthen, but in the current dilemma, whether to raise interest rates depends on the central bank's balance of various factors, and it is difficult to judge

with the warming weather, the fall in the prices of domestic vegetables, meat and other food in recent weeks has been somewhat unexpected. Therefore, the market's expectations for April CPI are also lower than before. However, analysts also pointed out that taking into account the tail raising factors and the rise in non food prices and other factors, China's inflation pressure will not show signs of easing in April when the price of such packaging boxes is about twice that of Ordinary Express boxes of the same specification. It is expected that the higher the transmission efficiency, the CPI will continue to remain at the level of 8.3% in March and remain at a high level in April

due to the low base in April last year, the market had generally expected CPI to rise again in April this year compared with March. However, at present, due to seasonal factors, the prices of vegetables and fruits fell sharply, making the CPI in April lower than the previous market expectations

according to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, due to the large number of seasonal vegetables on the market, vegetable prices have fallen significantly in recent weeks, and led to the overall decline in the price of edible agricultural products

taking the data from April 14 to 20 as an example, the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce showed that the overall price level of edible agricultural products fell by 0.9% compared with last week. This trend continued in the second two weeks of April

Morgan Stanley economist Wang Qing believes that CPI may fall back to 7.8% - 8.0% in April, lower than 8.3% in March and 8.7% in February, indicating that inflation continues to ease

however, some analysts believe that considering that there are still many rising factors in April, CPI in April may be lower than the market had expected, but it will not show a significant downward trend

lihuiyong, an analyst at Shenwan Securities Research Institute, predicts that CPI will remain high in April and will not fall significantly from March. He predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in April may fall between 8.2% and 8.6%, with a median of 8.4%

Lu Zhengwei, an analyst at industrial bank, also said that CPI in April may be slightly lower than market expectations, but under the interaction of seasonal rebound factors and some food decline factors, inflationary pressure will not show signs of easing in April

a relevant person from the National Bureau of statistics also said recently that China's CPI is difficult to fall in the short term, and it is also difficult to achieve the annual target of 4.8%, which will take about 105 minutes. However, the person also said that at present, CPI is still within the controllable range

the recovery of the international market Lu political commissar believes that this year's CPI may show a pattern of high before and low after, but the decline in the second half of the year will not be too large, and it is expected to reach about 6.6% for the whole year

although the inflationary pressure is still great, there are still differences on the interest rate hike market

Political Commissar Lu believes that at present, the central bank's interest rate hike is still restrained by various factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and the necessity of interest rate hike is reduced under the current inflation expectation has been suppressed. The central bank will first use quantitative means to strengthen liquidity recovery

lihuiyong said that at present, inflation is spreading from consumption to production, and inflation expectations may continue to increase, and the effective way to curb inflation expectations is to raise interest rates. However, in the current dilemma, whether to raise interest rates depends on the balance of various factors by the central bank, which is still difficult to judge

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